As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 7.0% in Israel military action against Beirut by...? — $423.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 7.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.
Since September 02, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.5% and 27.5%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 7.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.0% |
October 31 is favored at 7.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 7¢ | 7.0% | -2.5 pts | $25.4K | 6.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$423.8K has been traded on this event in total, $97 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,991 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky-Closing | No | 5,991 | $5.6K |
| Gaseous-Visit-Duckling | No | 3,250 | $3.0K |
| Studious-Pollutant-Locket | Yes | 3,091 | $216 |
| Notable-Fatherinlaw | Yes | 1,304 | $91 |
| Vapid-Mechanic | Yes | 928 | $65 |
| Boiling-Egg | Yes | 909 | $64 |
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 803 | $56 |
| Helpful-Contention | Yes | 748 | $52 |
| Profitable-Scallion-Dusk | Yes | 747 | $52 |
| Limp-Drawer | No | 561 | $522 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.4% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.4% | $303 |
| Oct 23, 12:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 03:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 09:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 09:11 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.7% | $43 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557?via=bro
$423.8K in total volume, with $97 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 04:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941.
October 31, priced at 7.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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