Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 7.0% in Israel military action against Beirut by...? — $423.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $97.
Leading outcome
October 31
7%
A 7.0% price implies roughly a 7-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.5 pts7D −2.0 pts30D −9.5 pts
Bid
4¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
6¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 02, 2026: 5.5% – 27.5% · Opened at 22.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Israel military action against Beirut by...?
Category
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 04:59 PM ET
Total volume
$423.8K
Volume (24h)
$97
Liquidity
$1.7K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 7.0%
Resolution source
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 7.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.

Since September 02, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.5% and 27.5%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 7.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20268.0%
Oct 16, 202611.0%
Oct 18, 202611.5%
Oct 19, 202611.5%
Oct 20, 202612.0%
Oct 23, 20269.5%
Oct 24, 20267.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 7.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 317¢7.0%-2.5 pts$25.4K6.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$423.8K has been traded on this event in total, $97 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,991 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sticky-ClosingNo5,991$5.6K
Gaseous-Visit-DucklingNo3,250$3.0K
Studious-Pollutant-LocketYes3,091$216
Notable-FatherinlawYes1,304$91
Vapid-MechanicYes928$65
Boiling-EggYes909$64
Whimsical-TerminalYes803$56
Helpful-ContentionYes748$52
Profitable-Scallion-DuskYes747$52
Limp-DrawerNo561$522

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $592 at 86.2%BUY No — $303 at 90.4%BUY No — $200 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:00 PM ETYesSELL4.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETYesBUY10.4%$10
Oct 23, 02:38 AM ETYesBUY10.0%$0
Oct 23, 02:38 AM ETYesBUY10.0%$10
Oct 23, 02:38 AM ETNoBUY90.4%$303
Oct 23, 12:29 AM ETYesBUY16.0%$3
Oct 22, 03:29 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$5
Oct 22, 09:32 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$1
Oct 22, 09:11 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 22, 08:00 AM ETYesSELL5.7%$43

Related markets

More Iran

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Israel military action against Beirut by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Israel military action against Beirut by...??

$423.8K in total volume, with $97 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Israel military action against Beirut by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 04:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941.

What is the most likely outcome of Israel military action against Beirut by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 7.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.