Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 25 at 97.8% in Israel military action against Lebanon on...? — $174.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.3K.
Leading outcome
October 25
98%
A 97.8% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +11.3 pts7D +14.8 pts
October 2597.8%
October 2697.0%
Bid
96¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since October 01, 2026: 68.0% – 88.0% · Opened at 82.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Category
Israel, strike, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$174.2K
Volume (24h)
$2.3K
Liquidity
$95.2K
Markets
9
Leading outcome
October 25 — 97.8%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 25, is priced at 97.8%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +11.3 pts; past week: +14.8 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, October 25 has traded between 68.0% and 88.0%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 86.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202680.5%
Oct 17, 202683.0%
Oct 18, 202682.0%
Oct 19, 202681.5%
Oct 20, 202685.0%
Oct 22, 202687.0%
Oct 23, 202686.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 25 is favored at 97.8%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 2598¢97.8%+11.3 pts$2.1K1.2%
October 2697¢97.0%+8.5 pts$2.2K1.2%
October 2796¢95.5%+6.5 pts$4.1K2.4%
October 3094¢94.5%+8.0 pts$1.7K1.0%
October 1893¢93.0%+1.8 pts$1.2K0.7%
October 2890¢90.0%-1.5 pts$2.7K1.6%
October 3188¢87.5%+1.0 pts$3.7K2.1%
October 2980¢80.0%+3.0 pts$2.7K1.5%
October 615¢15.0%+1.0 pts$7.1K4.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$174.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 252 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cylindrical-CauseYes252$246
Uncommon-Gutter-StanceNo169$4
Skeletal-LiverYes150$147
Long-VenueYes127$125
Limp-DrawerYes107$105
Belated-GlueNo93$2
Snappy-RoosterNo92$2
Known-UseNo90$2
0x28a66540…No47$1
Grim-GarageNo42$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $131 at 70.2%SELL No — $100 at 51.0%BUY Yes — $82 at 72.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:17 PM ETYesBUY95.0%$5
Oct 24, 12:38 PM ETNoBUY11.0%$5
Oct 24, 12:14 PM ETNoSELL6.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:14 PM ETNoSELL6.0%$3
Oct 24, 11:48 AM ETNoSELL8.0%$3
Oct 24, 11:48 AM ETNoSELL12.0%$7
Oct 23, 08:11 PM ETNoSELL7.0%$0
Oct 23, 08:11 PM ETYesBUY90.4%$10
Oct 23, 08:10 PM ETYesBUY90.0%$16
Oct 23, 05:37 AM ETYesBUY90.0%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Israel military action against Lebanon on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 25 at 97.8%. Next is October 26 at 97.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Israel military action against Lebanon on...??

$174.2K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.

When does Israel military action against Lebanon on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Israel military action against Lebanon on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 25, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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