As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 25 at 97.8% in Israel military action against Lebanon on...? — $174.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 25, is priced at 97.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +11.3 pts; past week: +14.8 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, October 25 has traded between 68.0% and 88.0%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.5% |
October 25 is favored at 97.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 | 98¢ | 97.8% | +11.3 pts | $2.1K | 1.2% |
| October 26 | 97¢ | 97.0% | +8.5 pts | $2.2K | 1.2% |
| October 27 | 96¢ | 95.5% | +6.5 pts | $4.1K | 2.4% |
| October 30 | 94¢ | 94.5% | +8.0 pts | $1.7K | 1.0% |
| October 18 | 93¢ | 93.0% | +1.8 pts | $1.2K | 0.7% |
| October 28 | 90¢ | 90.0% | -1.5 pts | $2.7K | 1.6% |
| October 31 | 88¢ | 87.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.7K | 2.1% |
| October 29 | 80¢ | 80.0% | +3.0 pts | $2.7K | 1.5% |
| October 6 | 15¢ | 15.0% | +1.0 pts | $7.1K | 4.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$174.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 252 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cylindrical-Cause | Yes | 252 | $246 |
| Uncommon-Gutter-Stance | No | 169 | $4 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 150 | $147 |
| Long-Venue | Yes | 127 | $125 |
| Limp-Drawer | Yes | 107 | $105 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 93 | $2 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 92 | $2 |
| Known-Use | No | 90 | $2 |
| 0x28a66540… | No | 47 | $1 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 42 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 12.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 08:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.4% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 08:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 25 at 97.8%. Next is October 26 at 97.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026?via=bro
$174.2K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 25, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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