As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 23.0% in Israel military action against Syria by...? — $165.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 23.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.0 pts; past week: +7.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 17.5% and 56.5%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 23.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 23.5% |
November 30 is favored at 23.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 23¢ | 23.0% | -9.0 pts | $4.1K | 2.5% |
| October 31 | 13¢ | 12.6% | -2.9 pts | $85.2K | 51.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$165.0K has been traded on this event in total, $693 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 380 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buzzing-Beginner | No | 380 | $293 |
| Measly-Commotion | Yes | 350 | $80 |
| Admired-Chime | No | 339 | $261 |
| Immense-Patriot | Yes | 335 | $77 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 166 | $38 |
| Wrong-Heater | No | 139 | $107 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 64 | $49 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 60 | $14 |
| Silent-Rowboat | No | 55 | $42 |
| Far-Flung-Dogsled | No | 55 | $42 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.3% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.7% | $144 |
| Oct 24, 08:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.6% | $302 |
| Oct 23, 11:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 83.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.9% | $50 |
| Oct 23, 04:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 23.0%. Next is October 31 at 12.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21?via=bro
$165.0K in total volume, with $693 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 23.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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