Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Israel military action against Syria by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 23.0% in Israel military action against Syria by...? — $165.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $693.
Leading outcome
November 30
23%
A 23.0% price implies roughly a 23-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −9.0 pts7D +7.5 pts
November 3023.0%
October 3112.6%
Bid
16¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
14¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 17.5% – 56.5% · Opened at 30.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Israel military action against Syria by...?
Category
Syria, Israel, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$165.0K
Volume (24h)
$693
Liquidity
$747
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 23.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 23.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.0 pts; past week: +7.5 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 17.5% and 56.5%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 23.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202638.5%
Oct 15, 202636.0%
Oct 16, 202630.5%
Oct 18, 202617.5%
Oct 19, 202630.0%
Oct 20, 202632.5%
Oct 24, 202623.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 23.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3023¢23.0%-9.0 pts$4.1K2.5%
October 3113¢12.6%-2.9 pts$85.2K51.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$165.0K has been traded on this event in total, $693 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 380 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Buzzing-BeginnerNo380$293
Measly-CommotionYes350$80
Admired-ChimeNo339$261
Immense-PatriotYes335$77
Belated-GlueYes166$38
Wrong-HeaterNo139$107
Arid-CinemaNo64$49
Pointed-WildernessYes60$14
Silent-RowboatNo55$42
Far-Flung-DogsledNo55$42

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $302 at 79.6%BUY No — $144 at 89.7%BUY No — $136 at 78.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:40 PM ETYesBUY24.0%$7
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETYesSELL9.3%$2
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETYesBUY11.5%$3
Oct 24, 08:18 AM ETYesBUY30.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:14 AM ETNoBUY89.7%$144
Oct 24, 08:14 AM ETNoBUY79.6%$302
Oct 23, 11:32 PM ETNoSELL83.1%$0
Oct 23, 10:13 PM ETNoBUY87.9%$50
Oct 23, 04:43 PM ETNoBUY56.0%$11

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Israel military action against Syria by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 23.0%. Next is October 31 at 12.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Israel military action against Syria by...??

$165.0K in total volume, with $693 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Israel military action against Syria by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Israel military action against Syria by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 23.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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