Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 26.5% in Israel military action against Yemen by...? — $331.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
26%
A 26.5% price implies roughly a 26-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −1.0 pts30D −27.0 pts
December 3126.5%
October 314.8%
Bid
13¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
27¢
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Range since September 16, 2026: 24.5% – 53.5% · Opened at 46.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
Category
Iran, Yemen, Israel, Houthis, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET
Total volume
$331.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$4.2K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 26.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 26.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -27.0 pts.

Since September 16, 2026, December 31 has traded between 24.5% and 53.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 26.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202627.5%
Oct 18, 202627.0%
Oct 19, 202630.0%
Oct 20, 202630.0%
Oct 22, 202630.0%
Oct 23, 202627.0%
Oct 24, 202626.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 26.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3126¢26.5%-0.5 pts$1190.0%
October 315¢4.8%-0.8 pts$8.4K2.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$331.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 50 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Oval-DisappointmentYes50$13
Belated-GlueNo43$32
Vivid-DownstairsYes15$4
Flamboyant-WarmingNo13$10
Cooked-StrobeNo11$8
Whimsical-Gravy-MagnitudeYes3$1
Frail-PrayerNo3$2
Empty-HeartthrobYes2$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $60 at 6.2%BUY No — $43 at 93.6%BUY No — $36 at 89.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 02:01 PM ETYesBUY5.0%$2
Oct 22, 04:08 PM ETYesBUY5.6%$1
Oct 21, 08:57 PM ETYesBUY5.5%$5
Oct 21, 01:35 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$5
Oct 21, 04:28 AM ETYesSELL3.1%$12
Oct 20, 09:58 PM ETYesBUY5.7%$1
Oct 20, 06:50 AM ETNoBUY94.5%$10
Oct 19, 09:09 PM ETNoBUY93.6%$43
Oct 19, 04:45 AM ETYesBUY10.3%$5
Oct 18, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY93.8%$1

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Israel military action against Yemen by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 26.5%. Next is October 31 at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-yemen-byptptpt-20260714001321874?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Israel military action against Yemen by...??

$331.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Israel military action against Yemen by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Israel military action against Yemen by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 26.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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