As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 32.5% in Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? — $8.54M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 32.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 18.5% and 36.5%. It opened at 18.5% and last traded at 32.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 32.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 32.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 32¢ | 32.5% | — | $2.0K | 0.0% |
| June 30, 2027 | 20¢ | 20.0% | — | $8.1K | 0.1% |
| March 31, 2027 | 12¢ | 12.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.7K | 0.0% |
| December 31 | 3¢ | 3.2% | +0.4 pts | $269.3K | 3.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 33¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.54M has been traded on this event in total, $911 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 135 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| fuckpolymarket | Yes | 135 | $44 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 100 | $67 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 96 | $31 |
| Playful-Badger | No | 75 | $51 |
| Speedy-Bartender | No | 45 | $31 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 30 | $10 |
| Steel-Harbor | Yes | 29 | $9 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | No | 20 | $14 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $14 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 20 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.8% | $71 |
| Oct 24, 07:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 03:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $281 |
| Oct 23, 02:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $50 |
| Oct 22, 02:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.9% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 12:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 12:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 32.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by?via=bro
$8.54M in total volume, with $911 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 32.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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