As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 6.0% in Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? — $4.07M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 6.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -7.0 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 5.0% and 48.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 6.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 6.0% |
December 31 is favored at 6.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $10.9K | 0.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.07M has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,214 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grounded-Depression | No | 3,214 | $3.0K |
| Outlying-Hurt | Yes | 2,273 | $136 |
| Gregarious-Fraction-Lion | Yes | 1,101 | $66 |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 541 | $508 |
| Optimal-Atheist | No | 420 | $395 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 387 | $23 |
| Woeful-Wildebeest | No | 301 | $283 |
| ydxistheking | No | 229 | $216 |
| Necessary-Lead | Yes | 200 | $12 |
| Bleak-Full | No | 197 | $186 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 08:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 07:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 08:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 10:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 07, 10:56 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $31 |
| Oct 07, 10:56 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $15 |
| Oct 07, 10:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $15 |
| Oct 07, 10:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31?via=bro
$4.07M in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/.
December 31, priced at 6.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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