As of October 24, 2026, 09:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 60.0% in Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out? — $458 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 60.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, Yes has traded between 61.5% and 62.0%. It opened at 62.0% and last traded at 61.5%.
Yes is favored at 60.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60¢ | 60.0% | -1.5 pts | $458 | 100.0% |
| No | 40¢ | 40.0% | +1.5 pts | $458 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$458 has been traded on this event in total, $86 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran ends before Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither the end of the ceasefire nor Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be Prime Minister of Israel occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran will be considered to have ended if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country after market creation. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 141 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visible-Pony | Yes | 141 | $85 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 44 | $17 |
| Heavenly-Tweet-Sweatsuit | No | 41 | $16 |
| Ordinary-Email-Empire | No | 40 | $16 |
| Brave-Vegetation | Yes | 20 | $12 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 20 | $8 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 11 | $4 |
| Evil-Row | No | 4 | $2 |
| Frequent-Failure | No | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.1% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 08:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 34.4% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 07:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 57.5% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 01:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 04:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 38.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 03:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 03:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 42.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 60.0%. Next is No at 40.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-ends-before-netanyahu-out?via=bro
$458 in total volume, with $86 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 60.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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