As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 44.5% in Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...? — $311 traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 44.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, November 30 has traded between 48.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 48.0%.
November 30 is favored at 44.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 44¢ | 44.5% | -5.5 pts | $15 | 4.8% |
| October 31 | 6¢ | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $296 | 95.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 39¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$311 has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 15 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimate-Cymbal-Divan | No | 15 | $8 |
| Adolescent-Hardcover-Difficulty | Yes | 10 | $4 |
| FATMAN | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 05:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 09:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.4% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 06:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.3% | $89 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 44.5%. Next is October 31 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20261022?via=bro
$311 in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 44.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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