As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 4.1% in Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) — $24.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 4.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.1 pts; past week: -3.9 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, October 31 has traded between 1.7% and 28.0%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 5.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 1.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.3% |
October 31 is favored at 4.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.1% | +2.1 pts | $3.1K | 12.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.7K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 734 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaseous-Visit-Duckling | No | 734 | $704 |
| Both-Shoreline | No | 604 | $579 |
| Giving-Petticoat | Yes | 464 | $19 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 300 | $12 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 245 | $10 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 104 | $4 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 60 | $2 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | Yes | 40 | $2 |
| Prudent-Realization-Farrow | Yes | 37 | $1 |
| Slow-Instruction | Yes | 22 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 08:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 03:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.7% | $20 |
| Oct 19, 12:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 03:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $19 |
| Oct 19, 03:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.2% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 03:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.5% | $547 |
| Oct 19, 03:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $388 |
| Oct 18, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.3% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 02:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 4.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-effective-ceasefire-begins-byptptpt-2-week-pause?via=bro
$24.7K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 4.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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