Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 4.1% in Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) — $24.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $5.
Leading outcome
October 31
4%
A 4.1% price implies roughly a 4-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.1 pts7D −3.9 pts
Bid
2¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 30, 2026: 1.7% – 28.0% · Opened at 28.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Category
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Politics, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$24.7K
Volume (24h)
$5
Liquidity
$10.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 4.1%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 4.1%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.1 pts; past week: -3.9 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, October 31 has traded between 1.7% and 28.0%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 5.3%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20263.8%
Oct 16, 20264.2%
Oct 18, 20268.8%
Oct 19, 20261.7%
Oct 20, 20265.3%
Oct 23, 20262.0%
Oct 24, 20265.3%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 4.1%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 314¢4.1%+2.1 pts$3.1K12.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$24.7K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 734 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Gaseous-Visit-DucklingNo734$704
Both-ShorelineNo604$579
Giving-PetticoatYes464$19
Required-HornYes300$12
Belated-GlueYes245$10
Tremendous-DivideYes104$4
Oddball-PoisonYes60$2
Awesome-Checkbook-HoseYes40$2
Prudent-Realization-FarrowYes37$1
Slow-InstructionYes22$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $547 at 90.5%BUY No — $388 at 96.9%BUY No — $170 at 95.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY2.5%$0
Oct 19, 08:54 PM ETYesBUY1.7%$1
Oct 19, 03:16 PM ETNoBUY97.7%$20
Oct 19, 12:49 PM ETYesSELL2.3%$0
Oct 19, 03:41 AM ETNoBUY97.0%$19
Oct 19, 03:41 AM ETNoSELL94.2%$0
Oct 19, 03:41 AM ETNoBUY90.5%$547
Oct 19, 03:41 AM ETNoBUY96.9%$388
Oct 18, 04:18 PM ETYesBUY8.3%$2
Oct 17, 02:57 AM ETYesBUY5.5%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 4.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-effective-ceasefire-begins-byptptpt-2-week-pause?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)?

$24.7K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause), according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 4.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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