As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? — $483.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 65.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 88.0% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.5% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | -1.0 pts | $483.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | +1.0 pts | $483.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$483.4K has been traded on this event in total, $154 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 35,356 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visible-Journal-Project | Yes | 35,356 | $3.7K |
| Stupendous-Saucer | Yes | 29,934 | $3.1K |
| Neglected-Antibody | Yes | 23,481 | $2.5K |
| Bleak-Full | No | 14,722 | $13.2K |
| Tasty-Discovery-Trunk | Yes | 11,035 | $1.2K |
| Dishonest-Timeout | No | 10,010 | $9.0K |
| Married-Tenement | No | 9,017 | $8.1K |
| Free-Gnat | No | 8,152 | $7.3K |
| Gaseous-Visit-Duckling | No | 6,488 | $5.8K |
| Exotic-Prize | No | 6,304 | $5.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 04:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.5% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 10:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027?via=bro
$483.4K in total volume, with $154 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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