As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 9.6% in Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...? — $458.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 9.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: -0.1 pts.
Since September 07, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.0% and 52.0%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 9.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 9.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 9.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 9.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 9.6% |
December 31 is favored at 9.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10¢ | 9.6% | -0.1 pts | $223 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$458.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 100 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limp-Drawer | No | 100 | $90 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 64 | $6 |
| Cheap-Climate | Yes | 17 | $2 |
| Pretty-Seaside | Yes | 9 | $1 |
| Complicated-Due | Yes | 7 | $1 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | Yes | 5 | $0 |
| Shameless-Incarnation | No | 2 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 09:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.5% | $89 |
| Sep 18, 11:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Sep 18, 11:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Sep 17, 01:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Sep 16, 08:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $6 |
| Sep 13, 06:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Sep 13, 01:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $50 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 9.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-nabatieh-by?via=bro
$458.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 9.6% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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