As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31 at 19.5% in Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…? — $1.41M traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.
Since September 16, 2026, March 31 has traded between 19.5% and 49.5%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
March 31 is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 20¢ | 19.5% | — | $136 | 0.0% |
| December 31 | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $533.9K | 38.0% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.2 pts | $10.6K | 0.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.41M has been traded on this event in total, $144 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 136 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impassioned-Chastity | No | 136 | $109 |
| Knotty-Exception | Yes | 53 | $10 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 50 | $10 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 28 | $5 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $150 |
| Oct 21, 07:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.7% | $56 |
| Oct 20, 08:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 07:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.5% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 04:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 10:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $118 |
| Oct 19, 11:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $104 |
| Oct 19, 12:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $95 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31 at 19.5%. Next is December 31 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733?via=bro
$1.41M in total volume, with $144 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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