As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4-6% at 33.5% in Israeli Legislative Election: % of Vote Below Threshold — $2.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4-6%, is priced at 33.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts.
Since October 19, 2026, 4-6% has traded between 30.0% and 36.0%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 33.5%.
4-6% is favored at 33.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6% | 34¢ | 33.5% | -2.5 pts | $818 | 32.9% |
| 6-8% | 30¢ | 30.0% | -6.0 pts | $580 | 23.3% |
| 8%+ | 21¢ | 21.4% | +6.9 pts | $345 | 13.9% |
| <4% | 9¢ | 9.1% | -2.4 pts | $743 | 29.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 23¢ / ask 44¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $509 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined share of the vote received by lists that do not pass the electoral threshold in the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of valid votes cast for lists that are not allocated any seats due to falling below the electoral threshold divided by the total number of valid votes cast. (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 169 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 169 | $112 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 136 | $46 |
| Pale-Foodstuffs | Yes | 49 | $16 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 34 | $23 |
| Queasy-Cougar | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Gleeful-Vestment-Simvastatin | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 20 | $13 |
| Candid-Encirclement | No | 19 | $13 |
| Evil-Row | No | 13 | $9 |
| Pesky-Glutamate | Yes | 10 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.9% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 11:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 48.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4-6% at 33.5%. Next is 6-8% at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-vote-below-threshold-20261019152743816?via=bro
$2.5K in total volume, with $509 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
4-6%, priced at 33.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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