Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.0% in Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? — $11.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $404.
Leading outcome
Yes
70%
A 70.0% price implies roughly a 70-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +8.5 pts7D +0.5 pts
Yes70.0%
No30.0%
Bid
67¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
6¢
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Range since October 07, 2026: 38.0% – 76.5% · Opened at 38.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
Category
World, Brazil, Politics
Scheduled end
March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$11.0K
Volume (24h)
$404
Liquidity
$24.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Yes — 70.0%
Resolution source
https://portal.stf.jus.br

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 70.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts.

Since October 07, 2026, Yes has traded between 38.0% and 76.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 61.5%.

DayClose
Oct 14, 202674.5%
Oct 15, 202676.5%
Oct 16, 202675.5%
Oct 18, 202669.0%
Oct 19, 202661.0%
Oct 20, 202669.0%
Oct 23, 202661.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Yes is favored at 70.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Yes70¢70.0%+8.5 pts$11.0K100.0%
No30¢30.0%-8.5 pts$11.0K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$11.0K has been traded on this event in total, $404 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or other designated place, except for the residence or curfew conditions permitted below. The release must be legally authorized and actually implemented by the deadline, ending all custodial measures. For house arrest, this means the measure has ceased to apply and he is no longer held under it or any other custodial measure. What qualifies: - Release through sentence extinction, annulment, or completion; a pardon, commutation, or amnesty; or a judicial decision, including habeas corpus, provisional release, or suspension of sentence execution. His sentence or conviction need not have ended. - Conditional release or parole (livramento condicional), including electronic monitoring, residence, or curfew conditions, provided he is no longer under house arrest or serving a sentence under a closed, semi-open, or open prison regime. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://portal.stf.jus.br

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,171 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sour-Pole-SeaNo1,171$351
Trusty-ScooterYes1,014$710
Trained-SniffleNo718$215
Impartial-Sonar-NestmateYes445$312
Caring-MiniYes385$269
Electric-ArchitectNo311$93
Melodic-PenaltyNo210$63
Belated-GlueYes195$136
Primary-Weather-BungalowNo169$51
Adored-TurningYes166$117

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $178 at 65.3%BUY Yes — $100 at 70.7%SELL Yes — $47 at 72.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:30 PM ETYesBUY65.3%$178
Oct 24, 07:30 PM ETNoBUY29.0%$12
Oct 24, 07:30 PM ETYesBUY66.0%$33
Oct 24, 08:19 AM ETYesBUY65.0%$4
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETNoSELL35.0%$10
Oct 24, 03:50 AM ETNoSELL35.0%$2
Oct 23, 06:24 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$5
Oct 23, 08:19 AM ETYesBUY65.0%$6
Oct 23, 05:19 AM ETNoBUY32.0%$10
Oct 22, 04:16 PM ETNoBUY30.0%$14

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 70.0%. Next is No at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jair-bolsonaro-released-from-custody-by-march-31-2027-1791185062998?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027??

$11.0K in total volume, with $404 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portal.stf.jus.br.

What is the most likely outcome of Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

Yes, priced at 70.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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