As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.0% in Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? — $11.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 70.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, Yes has traded between 38.0% and 76.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 61.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 61.5% |
Yes is favored at 70.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70¢ | 70.0% | +8.5 pts | $11.0K | 100.0% |
| No | 30¢ | 30.0% | -8.5 pts | $11.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.0K has been traded on this event in total, $404 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or other designated place, except for the residence or curfew conditions permitted below. The release must be legally authorized and actually implemented by the deadline, ending all custodial measures. For house arrest, this means the measure has ceased to apply and he is no longer held under it or any other custodial measure. What qualifies: - Release through sentence extinction, annulment, or completion; a pardon, commutation, or amnesty; or a judicial decision, including habeas corpus, provisional release, or suspension of sentence execution. His sentence or conviction need not have ended. - Conditional release or parole (livramento condicional), including electronic monitoring, residence, or curfew conditions, provided he is no longer under house arrest or serving a sentence under a closed, semi-open, or open prison regime. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://portal.stf.jus.br
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,171 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sour-Pole-Sea | No | 1,171 | $351 |
| Trusty-Scooter | Yes | 1,014 | $710 |
| Trained-Sniffle | No | 718 | $215 |
| Impartial-Sonar-Nestmate | Yes | 445 | $312 |
| Caring-Mini | Yes | 385 | $269 |
| Electric-Architect | No | 311 | $93 |
| Melodic-Penalty | No | 210 | $63 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 195 | $136 |
| Primary-Weather-Bungalow | No | 169 | $51 |
| Adored-Turning | Yes | 166 | $117 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.3% | $178 |
| Oct 24, 07:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 07:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 08:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 35.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 35.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 05:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 04:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 30.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 70.0%. Next is No at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jair-bolsonaro-released-from-custody-by-march-31-2027-1791185062998?via=bro
$11.0K in total volume, with $404 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portal.stf.jus.br.
Yes, priced at 70.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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