As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.5% in Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? — $13.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since May 15, 2026, No has traded between 46.0% and 96.0%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
No is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.5% | — | $13.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $13.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japanese government declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, only information from the national Government of Japan will qualify. Information from individual prefectures or municipalities will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,246 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worn-Tanker | No | 1,246 | $1.2K |
| Unaware-Jackal | No | 1,103 | $1.1K |
| Droopy-Dhow-Sanity | No | 1,072 | $1.0K |
| Tepid-Shark | Yes | 675 | $30 |
| 0x0ab9de65… | Yes | 513 | $23 |
| Conscious-Adapter | Yes | 457 | $21 |
| Powerful-Burning | Yes | 401 | $18 |
| Dull-Tank | Yes | 377 | $17 |
| Warm-Vane | Yes | 365 | $16 |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 341 | $326 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 02:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 12:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 12:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 17, 01:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 10, 09:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 09:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.9% | $3 |
| Oct 10, 08:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 06:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $5 |
| Oct 07, 06:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $3 |
| Oct 06, 06:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.5%. Next is Yes at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/japan-declassifies-new-ufo-files-in-2026?via=bro
$13.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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