As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.7% in JD Vance out as VP by...? — $248.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +0.7 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since May 27, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.6% and 9.5%. It opened at 8.5% and last traded at 4.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.7% |
December 31 is favored at 4.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5¢ | 4.7% | +0.2 pts | $156.7K | 63.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$248.0K has been traded on this event in total, $785 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,962 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Needy-Cenotaph | Yes | 17,962 | $835 |
| Electric-Guarantee | Yes | 6,379 | $297 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 5,109 | $4.9K |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 5,064 | $4.8K |
| Punctual-Sand | No | 3,746 | $3.6K |
| siick | No | 2,500 | $2.4K |
| Creepy-Appliance | Yes | 2,222 | $103 |
| Another-Allowance | No | 2,200 | $2.1K |
| Cheery-Preparation | No | 1,594 | $1.5K |
| Moist-Order | No | 1,503 | $1.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 01:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $95 |
| Oct 24, 01:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 09:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 02:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $12 |
| Oct 19, 04:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 07:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $26 |
| Oct 18, 11:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 11:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-out-as-vp-by?via=bro
$248.0K in total volume, with $785 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.7% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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