As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 5.3% in Jimmy Lai released by...? — $391.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 5.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.1 pts; past month: +1.4 pts.
Since June 28, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 1.7% and 46.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 5.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.3% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 5.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $26.5K | 6.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$391.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,265 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worn-Tanker | No | 5,265 | $5.0K |
| 0x56673c52… | Yes | 4,509 | $241 |
| Ideal-Arch | Yes | 4,090 | $219 |
| Droopy-Dhow-Sanity | No | 3,128 | $3.0K |
| Lazy-Psychology | No | 2,108 | $2.0K |
| 0xf5a631db… | Yes | 1,738 | $93 |
| 0x2c97476f… | No | 1,600 | $1.5K |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 1,589 | $85 |
| Paltry-Mustache | Yes | 1,495 | $80 |
| Moist-Order | No | 872 | $825 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.6% | $147 |
| Oct 22, 11:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 01:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.6% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 09:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.4% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.6% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 02:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.6% | $89 |
| Oct 20, 03:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $19 |
| Oct 20, 03:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $236 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 5.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30?via=bro
$391.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 5.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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