As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31? — $4.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts.
Since July 29, 2026, No has traded between 55.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 77.5% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.0% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,760 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villainous-Crook | No | 1,760 | $1.6K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 1,200 | $126 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 216 | $23 |
| False-Extreme | No | 130 | $117 |
| Writhing-Round | Yes | 120 | $13 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 96 | $10 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 83 | $9 |
| Perfect-Publishing | No | 64 | $57 |
| Memorable-Nuke | Yes | 58 | $6 |
| Golden-Panpipe | Yes | 51 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 01:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 12:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $31 |
| Oct 22, 12:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 12:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 12:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 03:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $30 |
| Oct 18, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 02:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $88 |
| Oct 17, 01:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.9% | $97 |
| Oct 17, 08:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/john-ratcliffe-out-as-cia-director-by-december-31-20260729184057166?via=bro
$4.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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