As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 51.5% in Jonathan Powell out as UK National Security Adviser by...? — $816 traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 51.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts.
Since October 19, 2026, December 31 has traded between 32.5% and 49.5%. It opened at 32.5% and last traded at 45.5%.
December 31 is favored at 51.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 52¢ | 51.5% | +6.0 pts | $468 | 57.4% |
| October 31 | 23¢ | 23.0% | -5.5 pts | $348 | 42.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 62¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$816 has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jonathan Powell ceases to be the UK National Security Adviser for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Powell's resignation, removal, or other formal departure from this position before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/departure goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jonathan Powell or the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 118 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 118 | $61 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 31 | $15 |
| Golden-Panpipe | No | 30 | $14 |
| 0xd00cd03f… | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 20 | $10 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 20 | $10 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 20 | $10 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 20 | $10 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 04:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 01:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 09:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 08:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 08:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 21, 04:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 51.5%. Next is October 31 at 23.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jonathan-powell-out-as-uk-national-security-adviser-by?via=bro
$816 in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 51.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.