As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.6% in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? — $74.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.1 pts; past month: -1.7 pts.
Since May 19, 2026, No has traded between 75.0% and 97.5%. It opened at 79.5% and last traded at 96.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.6% |
No is favored at 96.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 96.6% | — | $74.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $74.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$74.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point the investigation or any resulting criminal case against the specified individual formally ends without any possibility of a jail/prison sentence being issued, including due to no charges being filed, charges being dismissed, an acquittal, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,563 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleidoscopic-Revenge | No | 5,563 | $5.4K |
| Awkward-Sensitivity | No | 4,741 | $4.6K |
| 0xe049a905… | Yes | 2,570 | $87 |
| Bruised-Blackfish-Toot | Yes | 1,456 | $50 |
| Bogus-Riddle | Yes | 1,380 | $47 |
| Oblong-Liver | Yes | 1,100 | $37 |
| Attractive-Headrest | Yes | 1,034 | $35 |
| Extroverted-Interloper | Yes | 1,025 | $35 |
| Sick-Balaclava | No | 965 | $932 |
| Pink-Dead | Yes | 838 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 04:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.5% | $23 |
| Oct 20, 04:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.8% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.7% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.6%. Next is Yes at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-sentenced-to-prison?via=bro
$74.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.6% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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