As of October 24, 2026, 08:04 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.2% in Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? — $32.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -2.6 pts.
Since March 19, 2026, No has traded between 60.0% and 96.0%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 95.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.2% |
No is favored at 95.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.2% | — | $32.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 4.8% | — | $32.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$32.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,905 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palatable-Lighting | No | 1,905 | $1.8K |
| Occasional-Persimmon | Yes | 1,000 | $48 |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 971 | $925 |
| Vivacious-Essay | Yes | 545 | $26 |
| Fluffy-Dynamics | Yes | 320 | $15 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 256 | $12 |
| Limp-Drawer | No | 229 | $218 |
| Legal-Patriot | Yes | 150 | $7 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 144 | $7 |
| Optimal-Root | Yes | 142 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 09:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 09:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 02:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.3% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 02:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.2% | $8 |
| Oct 06, 09:09 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.6% | $5 |
| Oct 06, 09:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.1% | $5 |
| Oct 06, 07:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.1% | $3 |
| Oct 06, 07:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.1% | $3 |
| Sep 30, 10:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.3% | $189 |
| Sep 17, 07:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.2% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.2%. Next is Yes at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/joseph-aoun-out-as-president-of-lebanon-by-december-31?via=bro
$32.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.