As of October 24, 2026, 09:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 6-9 points behind at 38.5% in Josh Turek runs behind Rob Sand by...? — $65 traded so far.
The leading outcome, 6-9 points behind, is priced at 38.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -12.0 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, 6-9 points behind has traded between 38.5% and 50.0%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 38.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 38.5% |
6-9 points behind is favored at 38.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-9 points behind | 38¢ | 38.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 3-6 points behind | 38¢ | 37.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Runs ahead | 38¢ | 37.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 0-3 points behind | 37¢ | 37.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 9+ points behind | 36¢ | 36.0% | — | $65 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 67¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$65 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 Iowa general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Josh Turek is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Iowa, and Rob Sand is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Iowa. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Josh Turek’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election falls below Rob Sand’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. If Turek’s vote share exceeds Sand’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. … (condensed)
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 05:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $7 |
| Oct 15, 05:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 05:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 05:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $11 |
| Oct 15, 05:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $18 |
| Oct 15, 05:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 04:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is 6-9 points behind at 38.5%. Next is 3-6 points behind at 37.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/josh-turek-runs-behind-rob-sand-by?via=bro
$65 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
6-9 points behind, priced at 38.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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