As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Roger Marshall (R) at 85.5% in Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner — $4.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Roger Marshall (R), is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +9.0 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, Roger Marshall (R) has traded between 47.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
Roger Marshall (R) is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall (R) | 86¢ | 85.5% | +1.5 pts | $2.8K | 65.4% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | 14¢ | 14.0% | -2.0 pts | $1.5K | 34.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.3K has been traded on this event in total, $51 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Leavenworth County in the election for United States Senator from Kansas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Kansas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Leavenworth County.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 399 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert-Bonfire | Yes | 399 | $341 |
| Cheery-Science | Yes | 384 | $328 |
| Noxious-Fibrosis-Coaster | Yes | 297 | $254 |
| Known-Use | No | 230 | $33 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 193 | $28 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 183 | $27 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 110 | $16 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 100 | $14 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 77 | $11 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 68 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 86.0% | $132 |
| Oct 22, 08:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 08:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 08:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 07:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 86.0% | $48 |
| Oct 22, 04:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Roger Marshall (R) at 85.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kansas-senate-election-leavenworth-county-winner?via=bro
$4.3K in total volume, with $51 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
Roger Marshall (R), priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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