Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Roger Marshall (R) at 85.5% in Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner — $4.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $51.
Leading outcome
Roger Marshall (R)
86%
A 85.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts7D +9.0 pts
Roger Marshall (R)85.5%
Person A50.0%
Bid
85¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 16, 2026: 47.5% – 85.5% · Opened at 47.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner
Category
Senate, Midterms, Politics, Elections, US Election, Kansas Midterm
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.3K
Volume (24h)
$51
Liquidity
$22.2K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
Roger Marshall (R) — 85.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Roger Marshall (R), is priced at 85.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +9.0 pts.

Since October 16, 2026, Roger Marshall (R) has traded between 47.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 85.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202647.5%
Oct 18, 202673.0%
Oct 19, 202671.0%
Oct 20, 202682.0%
Oct 23, 202683.0%
Oct 24, 202685.5%
Oct 24, 202685.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Roger Marshall (R) is favored at 85.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Roger Marshall (R)86¢85.5%+1.5 pts$2.8K65.4%
Person A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Adam Hamilton (D)14¢14.0%-2.0 pts$1.5K34.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.3K has been traded on this event in total, $51 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Leavenworth County in the election for United States Senator from Kansas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Kansas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Leavenworth County.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 399 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Expert-BonfireYes399$341
Cheery-ScienceYes384$328
Noxious-Fibrosis-CoasterYes297$254
Known-UseNo230$33
Belated-GlueNo193$28
0xa5ef39c3…No183$27
Prickly-EyrieNo110$16
Gleaming-HandlebarNo100$14
Direct-ChainstayNo77$11
Oddball-PoisonNo68$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $444 at 74.8%BUY No — $379 at 76.2%BUY Yes — $134 at 63.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:39 PM ETNoSELL14.0%$3
Oct 24, 10:13 AM ETNoBUY14.0%$4
Oct 23, 04:31 AM ETNoSELL15.0%$3
Oct 23, 04:27 AM ETNoBUY16.0%$4
Oct 23, 04:27 AM ETYesSELL86.0%$132
Oct 22, 08:51 AM ETNoBUY15.0%$5
Oct 22, 08:49 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$6
Oct 22, 08:49 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$6
Oct 22, 07:10 AM ETYesSELL86.0%$48
Oct 22, 04:46 AM ETNoBUY14.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Roger Marshall (R) at 85.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kansas-senate-election-leavenworth-county-winner?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner?

$4.3K in total volume, with $51 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

Roger Marshall (R), priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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