As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 21.0% in Kash Patel out by...? — $1.79M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 21.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since March 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 16.5% and 83.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 21.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 21.0% |
December 31 is favored at 21.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 21¢ | 21.0% | +1.5 pts | $436.6K | 24.4% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $2.3K | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.79M has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 19,989 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful-Thistle | Yes | 19,989 | $4.2K |
| Smoggy-Antique | Yes | 16,792 | $3.5K |
| Key-Sovereignty | No | 14,942 | $11.8K |
| Gruesome-Media | No | 12,955 | $10.2K |
| Aggravating-Exploration | No | 8,426 | $6.7K |
| Powerful-Election | Yes | 8,114 | $1.7K |
| Hasty-Chain | Yes | 5,404 | $1.1K |
| Anchored-Tambourine | No | 4,943 | $3.9K |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 4,351 | $914 |
| Good-Natured-Diving | No | 3,812 | $3.0K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.2% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 04:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 04:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 21.0%. Next is October 31 at 2.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kash-patel-out-by?via=bro
$1.79M in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 21.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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