Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 6-9 points behind at 48.5% in Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round) — $5.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.2K.
Leading outcome
6-9 points behind
48%
A 48.5% price implies roughly a 48-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.5 pts7D +2.5 pts
6-9 points behind48.5%
3-6 points behind36.5%
Bid
45¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
7¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 14, 2026: 37.0% – 48.5% · Opened at 37.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)
Category
Senate, georgia, midterm, Politics, Jon Ossoff, Margin of Victory, Keisha Lance Bottoms
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.6K
Volume (24h)
$1.2K
Liquidity
$72.5K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
6-9 points behind — 48.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 6-9 points behind, is priced at 48.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts.

Since October 14, 2026, 6-9 points behind has traded between 37.0% and 48.5%. It opened at 37.0% and last traded at 48.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202638.5%
Oct 18, 202639.0%
Oct 19, 202641.0%
Oct 20, 202643.0%
Oct 22, 202645.5%
Oct 23, 202645.5%
Oct 24, 202648.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

6-9 points behind is favored at 48.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
6-9 points behind48¢48.5%-1.5 pts$1.3K23.1%
3-6 points behind36¢36.5%+7.5 pts$1.2K21.9%
9+ points behind16¢16.0%+6.5 pts$1.5K26.9%
0-3 points behind2¢2.2%+1.1 pts$91816.4%
Runs ahead0¢0.4%-0.1 pts$65511.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 52¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The 2026 Georgia general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, and Jon Ossoff is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Georgia. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Keisha Lance Bottoms’ vote share in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election falls below Jon Ossoff’s vote share in the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election. If Bottoms’ vote share exceeds Ossoff’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 371 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No371$191
Small-Fellow-MandolinYes218$106
Candid-EncirclementYes105$51
Fair-TanYes70$34
Golden-PanpipeNo68$35
Belated-GlueYes24$12
Evil-RowYes20$10
0xd0d90cd5…Yes5$2
Scary-Neck-VascularNo3$1
Decimal-Goggles-MincemeatNo1$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $145 at 86.0%BUY Yes — $55 at 52.0%BUY No — $46 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:24 PM ETYesBUY35.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:30 PM ETYesBUY16.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:48 PM ETNoSELL53.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:47 PM ETNoBUY54.0%$10
Oct 24, 12:34 PM ETNoBUY57.0%$11
Oct 24, 12:23 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$8
Oct 24, 11:45 AM ETYesSELL44.0%$4
Oct 24, 09:44 AM ETYesSELL45.0%$9
Oct 24, 05:12 AM ETNoSELL55.0%$11
Oct 24, 03:34 AM ETNoSELL80.0%$5

Related markets

More Politics

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 6-9 points behind at 48.5%. Next is 3-6 points behind at 36.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/keisha-lance-bottoms-runs-behind-jon-ossoff-by-first-round?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)?

$5.6K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round) end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round), according to Polymarket traders?

6-9 points behind, priced at 48.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.