As of October 24, 2026, 09:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <5 at 83.0% in Khamenei # posts October 23 - October 30, 2026? — $1.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <5, is priced at 83.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +11.5 pts.
Since October 20, 2026, <5 has traded between 71.0% and 83.0%. It opened at 71.0% and last traded at 83.0%.
<5 is favored at 83.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 83¢ | 83.0% | +11.5 pts | $495 | 27.4% |
| 10-14 | 15¢ | 15.2% | -10.8 pts | $27 | 1.5% |
| 5-9 | 12¢ | 11.5% | -15.5 pts | $47 | 2.6% |
| 20-24 | 2¢ | 2.0% | -23.9 pts | $42 | 2.3% |
| 15-19 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -24.9 pts | $32 | 1.8% |
| 55-59 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $151 | 8.4% |
| 50-54 | 1¢ | 1.0% | +0.1 pts | $133 | 7.4% |
| 30-34 | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $152 | 8.4% |
| 25-29 | 1¢ | 0.5% | -1.4 pts | $124 | 6.9% |
| 35-39 | 1¢ | 0.5% | -1.4 pts | $124 | 6.9% |
| 40-44 | 1¢ | 0.5% | -1.4 pts | $124 | 6.9% |
| 45-49 | 1¢ | 0.5% | -1.9 pts | $162 | 9.0% |
| 60+ | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $192 | 10.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.8K has been traded on this event in total, $318 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 23, 12:00 PM ET and October 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/khamenei_ir
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 185 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honest-Resume | Yes | 185 | $154 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 75 | $13 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 44 | $7 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 27 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 27 | $5 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 20 | $3 |
| Quick-Tap-Doe | No | 8 | $1 |
| Worrisome-Fresco | Yes | 6 | $5 |
| Each-Caliber | Yes | 5 | $4 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 5 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 87.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is <5 at 83.0%. Next is 10-14 at 15.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-of-tweets-october-23-october-30-2026?via=bro
$1.8K in total volume, with $318 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/khamenei_ir.
<5, priced at 83.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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