As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <5 at 86.0% in Khamenei # posts October 27 - November 3, 2026? — $5.2K traded so far.
<5 is favored at 86.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 86¢ | 86.0% | — | $2.0K | 37.8% |
| 5-9 | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $401 | 7.7% |
| 10-14 | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $10 | 0.2% |
| 15-19 | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $10 | 0.2% |
| 20-24 | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $10 | 0.2% |
| 25-29 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $366 | 7.0% |
| 30-34 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $306 | 5.8% |
| 35-39 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $306 | 5.8% |
| 40-44 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $286 | 5.5% |
| 45-49 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $306 | 5.8% |
| 50-54 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $406 | 7.8% |
| 55-59 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $426 | 8.1% |
| 60+ | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $426 | 8.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.2K has been traded on this event in total, $5.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/khamenei_ir
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 490 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smooth-Evolution | Yes | 490 | $422 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 265 | $37 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 210 | $29 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 100 | $14 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 100 | $14 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 73 | $63 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | Yes | 72 | $62 |
| Harmful-Amenity | Yes | 60 | $52 |
| Nutty-Hyacinth | No | 42 | $6 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 21 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.2% | $407 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 11:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 06:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.4% | $685 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is <5 at 86.0%. Next is 5-9 at 3.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-of-tweets-october-27-november-3-2026?via=bro
$5.2K in total volume, with $5.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/khamenei_ir.
<5, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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