As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 26.1% in Kimi K4 released by…? — $34.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 26.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -20.4 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 5.9% and 49.5%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 26.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 10.7% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 28.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 28.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 26.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 26.1% |
March 31, 2027 is favored at 26.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 26¢ | 26.1% | — | $2.6K | 7.5% |
| December 31, 2026 | 9¢ | 9.0% | -2.0 pts | $11.2K | 32.8% |
| October 31, 2026 | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $20.4K | 59.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$34.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,548 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimpled-Airport-Tea | No | 1,548 | $1.1K |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 563 | $147 |
| Vicious-Marshland | Yes | 314 | $82 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 236 | $62 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 100 | $26 |
| All-Calculator | Yes | 100 | $26 |
| Excited-Velvet | Yes | 60 | $16 |
| Idealistic-Mansion | Yes | 52 | $14 |
| Speedy-Bartender | Yes | 50 | $13 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 40 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $36 |
| Oct 22, 12:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 12:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $209 |
| Oct 20, 12:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 26.1%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k4-released-by-20260722184115883?via=bro
$34.2K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, 2027, priced at 26.1% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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