Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Kimi K4 released by…?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 26.1% in Kimi K4 released by…? — $34.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.3K.
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027
26%
A 26.1% price implies roughly a 26-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
30D −20.4 pts
March 31, 202726.1%
December 31, 20269.0%
Bid
26¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
0¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 5.9% – 49.5% · Opened at 28.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Kimi K4 released by…?
Category
AI, Kimi, Tech, Big Tech, Moonshot, AI Releases
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$34.2K
Volume (24h)
$2.3K
Liquidity
$6.8K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027 — 26.1%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 26.1%.

Price changes for the leading market — past month: -20.4 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 5.9% and 49.5%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 26.1%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202610.7%
Oct 15, 202628.4%
Oct 16, 202628.6%
Oct 18, 202626.1%
Oct 19, 202626.1%
Oct 20, 202626.1%
Oct 24, 202626.1%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

March 31, 2027 is favored at 26.1%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
March 31, 202726¢26.1%—$2.6K7.5%
December 31, 20269¢9.0%-2.0 pts$11.2K32.8%
October 31, 20260¢0.2%—$20.4K59.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$34.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,548 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Dimpled-Airport-TeaNo1,548$1.1K
Golden-UnemploymentYes563$147
Vicious-MarshlandYes314$82
Belated-GlueYes236$62
Sore-PitchingYes100$26
All-CalculatorYes100$26
Excited-VelvetYes60$16
Idealistic-MansionYes52$14
Speedy-BartenderYes50$13
Required-HornYes40$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $495 at 89.1%BUY No — $311 at 98.9%BUY No — $249 at 96.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:33 AM ETYesSELL0.2%$5
Oct 23, 11:52 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$1
Oct 23, 02:37 PM ETYesSELL0.4%$1
Oct 22, 12:36 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$36
Oct 22, 12:36 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$18
Oct 22, 12:36 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$12
Oct 22, 04:27 AM ETYesBUY1.4%$1
Oct 21, 12:39 PM ETYesBUY1.0%$2
Oct 21, 09:42 AM ETNoBUY99.5%$209
Oct 20, 12:43 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$9

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Kimi K4 released by…??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 26.1%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k4-released-by-20260722184115883?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Kimi K4 released by…??

$34.2K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Kimi K4 released by…? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Kimi K4 released by…?, according to Polymarket traders?

March 31, 2027, priced at 26.1% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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