As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.0% in Lai Ching-te impeached by...? — $1.36M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.2 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, December 31 has traded between 0.9% and 45.5%. It opened at 8.0% and last traded at 3.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.0% |
December 31 is favored at 3.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $325 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.36M has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 61 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wee-Love | No | 61 | $59 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 48 | $1 |
| True-Child-Bottling | Yes | 17 | $1 |
| Shady-Auditorium | Yes | 15 | $0 |
| Interesting-Cardboard | No | 10 | $10 |
| International-Acorn | No | 8 | $7 |
| Innocent-Freelance | No | 4 | $4 |
| Eager-Research | Yes | 3 | $0 |
| Narrow-Soundness | No | 3 | $3 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 3 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 07:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $10 |
| Sep 13, 01:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $3 |
| Sep 12, 09:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $1 |
| Sep 12, 09:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $7 |
| Sep 11, 11:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $4 |
| Sep 11, 07:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $4 |
| Sep 10, 02:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $3 |
| Sep 02, 04:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.2% | $3 |
| Aug 22, 01:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $48 |
| Aug 08, 09:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-impeached-by-june-30?via=bro
$1.36M in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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