As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.7% in Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? — $107.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +2.8 pts.
Since January 07, 2026, No has traded between 53.0% and 96.8%. It opened at 53.0% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 93.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 93.7% | -0.4 pts | $107.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.3% | +0.4 pts | $107.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$107.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,353 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish-Priority | No | 1,353 | $1.3K |
| Forsaken-Bangle | No | 907 | $849 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 848 | $54 |
| Perfect-Snow | Yes | 795 | $50 |
| Low-Ferryboat | No | 666 | $624 |
| Untimely-Charge | Yes | 477 | $30 |
| Exhausted-Flytrap | Yes | 438 | $28 |
| Weighty-Peer | No | 415 | $389 |
| Adventurous-Bitten | Yes | 402 | $26 |
| Dark-Portion | Yes | 369 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.7% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 01:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.6% | $257 |
| Oct 20, 04:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.6% | $223 |
| Oct 16, 02:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.8% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 02:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $15 |
| Oct 16, 07:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $89 |
| Oct 13, 08:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $37 |
| Oct 12, 08:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.8% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 03:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.3% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.7%. Next is Yes at 6.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026?via=bro
$107.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 93.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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