As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30 at 11.5% in Lai Ching-te visits US by...? — $4.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, is priced at 11.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, June 30 has traded between 7.0% and 45.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 12.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 12.5% |
June 30 is favored at 11.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12¢ | 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.7K | 60.0% |
| December 31 | 2¢ | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.8K | 40.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.6K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If Lai Ching-te visits the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Lai Ching-te physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Lai Ching-te enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or Taiwan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 937 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish-Priority | No | 937 | $829 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 442 | $51 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 188 | $22 |
| Vivacious-Fondue | Yes | 165 | $19 |
| Spicy-Acrylic | Yes | 50 | $6 |
| Crazy-Stirfry | Yes | 50 | $6 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 20 | $2 |
| Writhing-Round | Yes | 20 | $2 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 18 | $16 |
| Insecure-Statement | Yes | 10 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 03:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $44 |
| Oct 22, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 05:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 04:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 09:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 04:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 04:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 04:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30 at 11.5%. Next is December 31 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-visits-us-by?via=bro
$4.6K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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