Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price SpaceX at 64.5% in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — $6.69M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $16.4K.
Leading outcome
SpaceX
64%
A 64.5% price implies roughly a 64-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.0 pts30D +22.0 pts
SpaceX64.5%
Anthropic27.3%
Bid
64¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since February 02, 2026: 35.0% – 93.5% · Opened at 82.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Category
Climate & Science, IPO, Science, Elon Musk, OpenAI, Business, IPOs, sam altman, Big Tech, SpaceX, Space, Finance, OpenAI IPO
Scheduled end
January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$6.69M
Volume (24h)
$16.4K
Liquidity
$591.1K
Markets
74
Leading outcome
SpaceX — 64.5%
Resolution source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, SpaceX, is priced at 64.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past month: +22.0 pts.

Since February 02, 2026, SpaceX has traded between 35.0% and 93.5%. It opened at 82.0% and last traded at 72.5%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202646.0%
Oct 13, 202645.5%
Oct 15, 202655.5%
Oct 16, 202664.0%
Oct 18, 202663.5%
Oct 19, 202662.5%
Oct 20, 202672.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

SpaceX is favored at 64.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
SpaceX64¢64.5%-4.0 pts$1.03M15.5%
Anthropic27¢27.3%+4.0 pts$1.39M20.8%
xAI26¢25.5%—$00.0%
OpenAI0¢0.4%—$589.1K8.8%
Stripe0¢0.1%+0.1 pts$173.4K2.6%
ByteDance0¢0.1%—$222.5K3.3%
Databricks0¢0.1%—$628.7K9.4%
SHEIN0¢0.1%—$635.7K9.5%
Waymo0¢0.1%—$345.3K5.2%
Revolut0¢0.1%—$660.2K9.9%
Discord0¢0.1%—$203.9K3.0%
Perplexity AI0¢0.1%—$134.2K2.0%
Kraken0¢0.1%—$668.1K10.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$6.69M has been traded on this event in total, $16.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 74 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 164,888 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No164,888$58.5K
Fabulous-OnlineYes106,000$68.4K
Pleased-PardonNo101,121$35.9K
Loud-Ruin-PatentNo65,044$23.1K
Old-SquatterYes50,000$32.2K
Witty-ConvictionYes49,825$32.1K
Bustling-EquipmentNo49,364$17.5K
Positive-SteamNo40,863$14.5K
Visible-LogoYes31,313$20.2K
Quarterly-BackpackYes26,777$17.3K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $1.8K at 65.2%BUY No — $488 at 33.0%BUY No — $468 at 78.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:02 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$5
Oct 24, 05:00 PM ETNoSELL36.0%$71
Oct 24, 05:00 PM ETYesBUY64.0%$21
Oct 24, 04:59 PM ETYesBUY30.6%$10
Oct 24, 04:21 PM ETYesSELL24.6%$1
Oct 24, 04:17 PM ETYesBUY31.8%$64
Oct 24, 03:48 PM ETYesSELL63.0%$22
Oct 24, 03:42 PM ETNoSELL33.0%$8
Oct 24, 03:42 PM ETNoBUY38.0%$7
Oct 24, 03:42 PM ETYesSELL63.0%$22

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Largest IPO by market cap in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is SpaceX at 64.5%. Next is Anthropic at 27.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Largest IPO by market cap in 2026??

$6.69M in total volume, with $16.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 74 markets.

When does Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/.

What is the most likely outcome of Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

SpaceX, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.