As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price SpaceX at 64.5% in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — $6.69M traded so far.
The leading outcome, SpaceX, is priced at 64.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past month: +22.0 pts.
Since February 02, 2026, SpaceX has traded between 35.0% and 93.5%. It opened at 82.0% and last traded at 72.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.5% |
SpaceX is favored at 64.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 64¢ | 64.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.03M | 15.5% |
| Anthropic | 27¢ | 27.3% | +4.0 pts | $1.39M | 20.8% |
| xAI | 26¢ | 25.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| OpenAI | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $589.1K | 8.8% |
| Stripe | 0¢ | 0.1% | +0.1 pts | $173.4K | 2.6% |
| ByteDance | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $222.5K | 3.3% |
| Databricks | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $628.7K | 9.4% |
| SHEIN | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $635.7K | 9.5% |
| Waymo | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $345.3K | 5.2% |
| Revolut | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $660.2K | 9.9% |
| Discord | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $203.9K | 3.0% |
| Perplexity AI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $134.2K | 2.0% |
| Kraken | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $668.1K | 10.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.69M has been traded on this event in total, $16.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 74 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 164,888 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 164,888 | $58.5K |
| Fabulous-Online | Yes | 106,000 | $68.4K |
| Pleased-Pardon | No | 101,121 | $35.9K |
| Loud-Ruin-Patent | No | 65,044 | $23.1K |
| Old-Squatter | Yes | 50,000 | $32.2K |
| Witty-Conviction | Yes | 49,825 | $32.1K |
| Bustling-Equipment | No | 49,364 | $17.5K |
| Positive-Steam | No | 40,863 | $14.5K |
| Visible-Logo | Yes | 31,313 | $20.2K |
| Quarterly-Backpack | Yes | 26,777 | $17.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $71 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 04:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.6% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.6% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.8% | $64 |
| Oct 24, 03:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $22 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is SpaceX at 64.5%. Next is Anthropic at 27.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287?via=bro
$6.69M in total volume, with $16.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 74 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/.
SpaceX, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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