As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Matthew Garwood at 62.5% in Launceston Mayoral Election Winner — $13.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Matthew Garwood, is priced at 62.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past week: +8.0 pts; past month: -9.0 pts.
Since September 03, 2026, Matthew Garwood has traded between 45.0% and 74.5%. It opened at 53.5% and last traded at 62.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.0% |
Matthew Garwood is favored at 62.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Garwood | 62¢ | 62.5% | +5.5 pts | $6.6K | 51.2% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Kyle Barrett | 20¢ | 20.0% | -4.5 pts | $3.5K | 26.8% |
| Tim Walker | 4¢ | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $847 | 6.5% |
| Paul Mallett | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $806 | 6.2% |
| Rose Diamond | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.4 pts | $1.2K | 9.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.0K has been traded on this event in total, $30 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Launceston as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Resolution source: https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 524 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 524 | $196 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 359 | $225 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 148 | $55 |
| 0x6b25c5c4… | Yes | 132 | $82 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 101 | $38 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 93 | $58 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 90 | $56 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 76 | $48 |
| Long-Term-Overhead | No | 75 | $28 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 75 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 03:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 03:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $9 |
| Oct 18, 01:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 51.0% | $3 |
| Oct 17, 09:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Matthew Garwood at 62.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/launceston-mayoral-election-winner-2026?via=bro
$13.0K in total volume, with $30 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/.
Matthew Garwood, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.