Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price April 17, 2027 at 24.3% in Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...? — $7.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $400.
Leading outcome
April 17, 2027
24%
A 24.3% price implies roughly a 24-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.1 pts7D −2.9 pts30D +12.0 pts
April 17, 202724.3%
December 31, 20269.5%
Bid
22¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 09, 2026: 4.1% – 42.0% · Opened at 20.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?
Category
France, Politics, Elections, Marine Le Pen, International Election Props, French Election, French Elections
Scheduled end
April 17, 2027, 05:59 PM ET
Total volume
$7.6K
Volume (24h)
$400
Liquidity
$12.6K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
April 17, 2027 — 24.3%
Resolution source
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, April 17, 2027, is priced at 24.3%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.1 pts; past week: -2.9 pts; past month: +12.0 pts.

Since July 09, 2026, April 17, 2027 has traded between 4.1% and 42.0%. It opened at 20.0% and last traded at 23.2%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202632.2%
Oct 17, 202627.2%
Oct 18, 202626.9%
Oct 19, 202624.1%
Oct 20, 202626.8%
Oct 22, 202624.2%
Oct 23, 202623.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

April 17, 2027 is favored at 24.3%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
April 17, 202724¢24.3%+1.1 pts$3.4K45.1%
December 31, 202610¢9.5%-1.5 pts$4.2K54.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.6K has been traded on this event in total, $400 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end April 17, 2027, 05:59 PM ET.

On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister. If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 171 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Pastel-BrowserNo171$129
Belated-GlueYes150$37
Traumatic-SkillYes58$14
Amazing-PadNo40$30
Precious-IdentityYes16$4
Multicolored-CasseroleNo15$11
Attentive-CrewmanYes10$2
Scarce-FootnoteNo9$7
Exemplary-DecisionmakingNo5$4
Grim-GarageYes3$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $158 at 88.0%BUY No — $60 at 90.0%BUY No — $36 at 90.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:19 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETYesSELL8.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETYesSELL9.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETYesSELL9.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETYesSELL9.5%$4
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$36
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$5
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$60
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$5
Oct 24, 11:23 AM ETNoBUY73.9%$34

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is April 17, 2027 at 24.3%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/le-pen-names-non-bardella-pm-byptptpt-20260708200413440?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...??

$7.6K in total volume, with $400 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end April 17, 2027, 05:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/.

What is the most likely outcome of Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

April 17, 2027, priced at 24.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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