As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price April 17, 2027 at 24.3% in Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...? — $7.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, April 17, 2027, is priced at 24.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.1 pts; past week: -2.9 pts; past month: +12.0 pts.
Since July 09, 2026, April 17, 2027 has traded between 4.1% and 42.0%. It opened at 20.0% and last traded at 23.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.2% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 27.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 24.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 26.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 24.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23.2% |
April 17, 2027 is favored at 24.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17, 2027 | 24¢ | 24.3% | +1.1 pts | $3.4K | 45.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | 10¢ | 9.5% | -1.5 pts | $4.2K | 54.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.6K has been traded on this event in total, $400 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 17, 2027, 05:59 PM ET.
On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister. If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 171 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pastel-Browser | No | 171 | $129 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 150 | $37 |
| Traumatic-Skill | Yes | 58 | $14 |
| Amazing-Pad | No | 40 | $30 |
| Precious-Identity | Yes | 16 | $4 |
| Multicolored-Casserole | No | 15 | $11 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 10 | $2 |
| Scarce-Footnote | No | 9 | $7 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | No | 5 | $4 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 3 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.5% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $60 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 73.9% | $34 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is April 17, 2027 at 24.3%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/le-pen-names-non-bardella-pm-byptptpt-20260708200413440?via=bro
$7.6K in total volume, with $400 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 17, 2027, 05:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/.
April 17, 2027, priced at 24.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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