As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Morgan Stanley at 86.5% in Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? — $97.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Morgan Stanley, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.
Since June 01, 2026, Morgan Stanley has traded between 17.0% and 89.0%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.0% |
Morgan Stanley is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 86¢ | 86.5% | -2.5 pts | $26.6K | 27.2% |
| Goldman Sachs | 7¢ | 7.0% | +2.1 pts | $29.2K | 29.8% |
| JPMorgan | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $12.2K | 12.5% |
| Barclays | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $4.5K | 4.6% |
| Wells Fargo | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $3.8K | 3.9% |
| Bank of America | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $6.1K | 6.3% |
| UBS | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.5K | 4.6% |
| Citigroup | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.8K | 5.9% |
| Deutsche Bank | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.2K | 5.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$97.8K has been traded on this event in total, $1.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,074 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,074 | $685 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Yes | 2,582 | $2.2K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 699 | $605 |
| Wrathful-Aquarium | Yes | 607 | $525 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 418 | $362 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 290 | $251 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 238 | $32 |
| Grim-Cob | No | 200 | $27 |
| Grandiose-Quiet-Underwriting | Yes | 200 | $173 |
| Pointed-Rooster | Yes | 200 | $173 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.5% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.3% | $120 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.3% | $552 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.3% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.3% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $141 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.4% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.8% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Morgan Stanley at 86.5%. Next is Goldman Sachs at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo?via=bro
$97.8K in total volume, with $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Morgan Stanley, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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