As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Amal Movement (Amal) at 2.1% in Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner — $678.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Amal Movement (Amal), is priced at 2.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.1 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since January 06, 2026, Amal Movement (Amal) has traded between 0.8% and 35.4%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 2.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 0.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 0.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 1.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 2.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 2.1% |
Amal Movement (Amal) is favored at 2.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amal Movement (Amal) | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $64.3K | 9.5% |
| Lebanese Forces (LF) | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $169.2K | 25.0% |
| Hezbollah (Hezb) | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $56.5K | 8.3% |
| Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $80.5K | 11.9% |
| Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $55.0K | 8.1% |
| Kataeb Party (Kataeb) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $7.4K | 1.1% |
| Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $10.6K | 1.6% |
| Marada Movement (MM) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $8.7K | 1.3% |
| Independence Movement (IM) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $8.9K | 1.3% |
| Taqaddom Party | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $11.8K | 1.7% |
| Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.2K | 1.4% |
| Islamic Group (IG) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $8.6K | 1.3% |
| Union Party (UP) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $7.8K | 1.1% |
| Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $10.7K | 1.6% |
| National Liberal Party (NLP) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.6K | 1.4% |
| Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $13.8K | 2.0% |
| Mada Party (Mada) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $28.1K | 4.1% |
| Khatt Ahmar | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $14.2K | 2.1% |
| Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.3K | 1.4% |
| National Dialogue Party (NDP) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $47.4K | 7.0% |
| Dignity Movement (DM) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $29.2K | 4.3% |
| Watani Alliance (Watani) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $7.5K | 1.1% |
| ReLebanon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.8K | 1.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$678.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 44 markets.
This market is scheduled to end May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,667 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,667 | $7.5K |
| Expensive-Struggle | Yes | 1,733 | $36 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery | Yes | 1,087 | $22 |
| Untimely-Charge | Yes | 1,070 | $22 |
| Female-Tailbud | Yes | 1,060 | $22 |
| Foolhardy-Grocery | Yes | 649 | $13 |
| Barren-Underpants | Yes | 500 | $10 |
| 0xe4bfdfc1… | No | 362 | $354 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Yes | 281 | $6 |
| Snoopy-Sediment | Yes | 180 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 12:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 03:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.6% | $8 |
| Oct 20, 10:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 04:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.5% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 06:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 01:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 07:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 01:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 07:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 01:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Amal Movement (Amal) at 2.1%. Next is Lebanese Forces (LF) at 0.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner?via=bro
$678.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 44 markets.
The market is scheduled to end May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Amal Movement (Amal), priced at 2.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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