As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 23.5% in Lecornu out as French PM by...? — $367.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 23.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +6.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since December 04, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 16.0% and 68.0%. It opened at 58.5% and last traded at 23.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 23.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 23.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 24¢ | 23.5% | — | $26.8K | 7.3% |
| October 31, 2026 | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.2 pts | $2.6K | 0.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$367.1K has been traded on this event in total, $141 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,113 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasant-Councilor | No | 1,113 | $852 |
| Impassioned-Chef-Steward | Yes | 1,048 | $246 |
| Flamboyant-Downforce-Trash | No | 961 | $735 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 872 | $205 |
| Pastel-Browser | Yes | 817 | $192 |
| Scarce-Footnote | Yes | 800 | $188 |
| Tense-Precedent | No | 745 | $570 |
| Frightened-Exploration | Yes | 500 | $118 |
| 0x1ff3d3fd… | No | 485 | $371 |
| Surprised-Article | No | 439 | $336 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $100 |
| Oct 23, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $96 |
| Oct 23, 07:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 05:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 23.5%. Next is October 31, 2026 at 3.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381?via=bro
$367.1K in total volume, with $141 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 23.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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