As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $1B at 19.3% in Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ? — $25.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $1B, is priced at 19.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.2 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since January 23, 2026, $1B has traded between 15.3% and 98.5%. It opened at 75.0% and last traded at 19.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 19.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 19.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 19.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 19.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.2% |
$1B is favored at 19.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1B | 19¢ | 19.3% | — | $8.9K | 35.2% |
| $4B | 19¢ | 19.0% | — | $3.3K | 12.8% |
| $3B | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $2.7K | 10.7% |
| $2B | 16¢ | 15.9% | -0.1 pts | $5.2K | 20.6% |
| $5B | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $4.1K | 16.2% |
| $7B | 13¢ | 13.2% | -0.1 pts | $677 | 2.7% |
| $6B | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $481 | 1.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$25.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 498 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kindhearted-Bandwidth | No | 498 | $402 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 270 | $52 |
| Unfinished-Clinic | Yes | 224 | $43 |
| Belated-Meringue | No | 202 | $163 |
| Major-Brush | No | 144 | $116 |
| Glass-Typewriter | Yes | 136 | $26 |
| Personal-Mall | Yes | 101 | $19 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 42 | $8 |
| Mad-Research-Wasp | Yes | 26 | $5 |
| Frigid-Nexus-Animal | No | 25 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 07:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.3% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 05:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 09:45 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $8 |
| Oct 02, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.1% | $2 |
| Sep 27, 06:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.7% | $9 |
| Sep 25, 07:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $3 |
| Sep 25, 04:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
| Sep 25, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $2 |
| Sep 25, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $5 |
| Sep 19, 10:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 72.8% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $1B at 19.3%. Next is $4B at 19.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above?via=bro
$25.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
$1B, priced at 19.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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