As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 25.5% in Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by...? — $12.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 25.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts; past month: -9.0 pts.
Since August 25, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 23.0% and 53.0%. It opened at 31.5% and last traded at 25.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 25.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 25.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 26¢ | 25.5% | — | $4.2K | 32.7% |
| June 30, 2027 | 7¢ | 6.7% | — | $1.7K | 13.4% |
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 5.5% | +0.7 pts | $7.0K | 53.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 370 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 370 | $94 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 244 | $182 |
| Noxious-Lumberman | No | 187 | $139 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 98 | $25 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 96 | $72 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 90 | $67 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 78 | $20 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 58 | $43 |
| Writhing-Round | Yes | 55 | $14 |
| Spicy-Acrylic | Yes | 50 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.5% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 05:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.9% | $50 |
| Oct 18, 02:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 18, 01:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 16, 03:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.7% | $46 |
| Oct 16, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.6% | $127 |
| Oct 16, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 12:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 11:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 11:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $60 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 25.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 6.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/leopold-aschenbrenner-charged-in-2026-20260730180201140?via=bro
$12.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 25.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.