Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Rafael López Aliaga at 78.5% in Lima Mayoral Election Winner — $557.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $55.

Leading outcome

Rafael López Aliaga

79%

A 78.5% price implies roughly a 79-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.

24H −0.9 pts7D −13.5 pts30D +9.2 pts

Rafael López Aliaga78.5%

Person B50.0%

Bid: 71¢
Ask: 86¢
Spread: 15¢

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Range since August 28, 2026: 32.2% – 96.8% · Opened at 32.2%

Market facts

Event data

Event: Lima Mayoral Election Winner
Category: Peru, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Global Elections
Scheduled end: October 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume: $557.3K
Volume (24h): $55
Liquidity: $336.7K
Markets: 49
Leading outcome: Rafael López Aliaga — 78.5%
Resolution source: https://jne.gob.pe

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Rafael López Aliaga, is priced at 78.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.9 pts; past week: -13.5 pts; past month: +9.2 pts.

Since August 28, 2026, Rafael López Aliaga has traded between 32.2% and 96.8%. It opened at 32.2% and last traded at 78.5%.

Day	Close
Oct 15, 2026	87.5%
Oct 16, 2026	92.0%
Oct 18, 2026	90.0%
Oct 19, 2026	86.8%
Oct 20, 2026	87.2%
Oct 23, 2026	79.4%
Oct 24, 2026	78.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Rafael López Aliaga is favored at 78.5%.

Outcome	Price	Implied probability	24h change	Volume	Volume share
Rafael López Aliaga	79¢	78.5%	-0.9 pts	$183.3K	32.9%
Person B	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person C	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person D	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person E	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person F	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person G	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person H	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person I	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person J	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person K	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person L	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person M	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person N	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person O	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person P	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person Q	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person R	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person S	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person T	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person U	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person V	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person W	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person X	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person Y	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Person Z	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Other	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Francis James Allison Oyague	1¢	1.5%	—	$163.4K	29.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca	0¢	0.2%	—	$96.5K	17.3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli	0¢	0.1%	—	$15.0K	2.7%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.9K	0.5%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo	0¢	0.1%	—	$9.9K	1.8%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera	0¢	0.1%	—	$18.0K	3.2%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino	0¢	0.1%	—	$1.7K	0.3%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra	0¢	0.1%	—	$1.8K	0.3%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.1K	0.4%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero	0¢	0.1%	—	$1.9K	0.3%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.4K	0.4%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.4K	0.4%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés	0¢	0.1%	—	$1.7K	0.3%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez	0¢	0.1%	—	$1.9K	0.3%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.5K	0.4%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.2K	0.4%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype	0¢	0.1%	—	$18.1K	3.2%
Segundo Valdez Zavala	0¢	0.1%	—	$1.8K	0.3%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero	0¢	0.1%	—	$2.1K	0.4%
Yehude Simón Munaro	0¢	0.1%	—	$10.2K	1.8%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué	0¢	0.1%	—	$12.3K	2.2%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega	0¢	0.1%	—	$3.4K	0.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 15¢ (bid 71¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$557.3K has been traded on this event in total, $55 of it in the last 24 hours, across 49 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).

Resolution source: https://jne.gob.pe

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 32,520 shares of No.

Holder	Outcome held	Shares	Value at current price
0xa5ef39c3…	No	32,520	$7.0K
Whimsical-Terminal	No	20,599	$4.4K
Poised-Entertainment	Yes	10,047	$7.9K
Assured-Perfume	Yes	9,166	$7.2K
mrworldwide	Yes	8,309	$6.5K
Witty-Vanilla	Yes	8,036	$6.3K
Close-Circadian	Yes	6,676	$5.2K
Awkward-Sensitivity	No	4,584	$983
Hidden-Support	No	3,438	$738
Plush-Tutu	Yes	3,200	$2.5K

What are the latest trades?

Tape

SELL No — $724 at 99.9%SELL No — $551 at 99.6%SELL Yes — $479 at 80.5%

Time	Outcome	Side	Price	Size
Oct 24, 07:19 PM ET	Yes	SELL	71.3%	$4
Oct 24, 04:34 PM ET	Yes	SELL	71.3%	$1
Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET	No	SELL	12.8%	$3
Oct 24, 01:32 AM ET	Yes	SELL	71.3%	$18
Oct 23, 03:14 PM ET	No	SELL	97.7%	$5
Oct 23, 02:14 PM ET	No	SELL	97.7%	$23
Oct 23, 02:14 PM ET	No	SELL	97.7%	$8
Oct 23, 02:14 PM ET	Yes	SELL	0.6%	$32
Oct 23, 02:14 PM ET	No	SELL	97.7%	$69
Oct 23, 11:39 AM ET	Yes	SELL	80.5%	$479

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lima Mayoral Election Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Rafael López Aliaga at 78.5%. Next is Person B at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lima-mayoral-election-winner-20260724153924694?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lima Mayoral Election Winner?

$557.3K in total volume, with $55 traded in the last 24 hours across 49 markets.

When does Lima Mayoral Election Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end October 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://jne.gob.pe.

What is the most likely outcome of Lima Mayoral Election Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

Rafael López Aliaga, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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