As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 90.5% in Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? — $5.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 90.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts.
Since February 12, 2026, No has traded between 55.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 90.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.5% |
No is favored at 90.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 90.5% | -2.5 pts | $5.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 9.5% | +2.5 pts | $5.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.1K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 975 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pristine-Business | No | 975 | $883 |
| Austere-Assist | Yes | 643 | $61 |
| Cooperative-Gasket | No | 260 | $235 |
| Ill-Informed-Commotion | Yes | 200 | $19 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 181 | $17 |
| Orderly-Dentist | Yes | 158 | $15 |
| Barren-Underpants | No | 100 | $90 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 96 | $9 |
| Legitimate-Monitor-Soy | No | 96 | $87 |
| Jam-Packed-Bayou | Yes | 93 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 03:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 01:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.1% | $178 |
| Oct 05, 01:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Sep 18, 11:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Sep 14, 10:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $2 |
| Sep 14, 10:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $6 |
| Sep 14, 10:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $26 |
| Sep 11, 05:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $26 |
| Sep 11, 12:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 90.5%. Next is Yes at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lisa-murkowski-leaves-the-republican-party-in-2026?via=bro
$5.1K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 90.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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