As of October 24, 2026, 09:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 64.5% in Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings? — $682 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 64.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Yes has traded between 64.0% and 66.5%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 64.0%.
Yes is favored at 64.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64¢ | 64.5% | -2.0 pts | $682 | 100.0% |
| No | 36¢ | 35.5% | +2.0 pts | $682 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$682 has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET.
As of market creation, Eli Lilly is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Eli Lilly’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $7.01 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $7.01 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Eli Lilly releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LLY/earnings
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 126 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weird-Ephemeris-Exception | Yes | 126 | $81 |
| Pure-Threat | No | 94 | $34 |
| 0x03a43e77… | No | 50 | $18 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | Yes | 44 | $29 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 20 | $7 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 15 | $5 |
| Taut-Giant | Yes | 8 | $5 |
| Impassioned-Monk | Yes | 7 | $4 |
| Evil-Row | No | 6 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 07:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 05:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.5% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.6% | $62 |
| Oct 23, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 64.5%. Next is No at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lly-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2026-7pt01?via=bro
$682 in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LLY/earnings.
Yes, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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