As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 51.0% in Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings? — $4.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 51.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +14.0 pts; past week: +11.0 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, Yes has traded between 36.5% and 60.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 36.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 36.5% |
Yes is favored at 51.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51¢ | 51.0% | +14.0 pts | $4.7K | 100.0% |
| No | 49¢ | 49.0% | -14.0 pts | $4.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 40¢ / ask 62¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.7K has been traded on this event in total, $139 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET.
As of market creation, Eli Lilly is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Eli Lilly’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $7.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $7.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Eli Lilly releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LLY/earnings
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,105 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bold-Health | Yes | 1,105 | $564 |
| Frosty-Funding | No | 730 | $358 |
| Chief-Plot | Yes | 626 | $319 |
| Pure-Threat | No | 581 | $285 |
| Glum-Seashore | Yes | 344 | $175 |
| LIBAI | No | 336 | $164 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 226 | $111 |
| Careful-Toughguy | Yes | 182 | $93 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | No | 162 | $79 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 156 | $76 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 38.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.6% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 01:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 60.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 03:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $64 |
| Oct 23, 05:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 04:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $60 |
| Oct 23, 03:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 51.0%. Next is No at 49.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lly-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2026-7pt49?via=bro
$4.7K in total volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LLY/earnings.
Yes, priced at 51.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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