Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Longest GitHub critical incident in October?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3-6 hours at 77.0% in Longest GitHub critical incident in October? — $33.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $3.2K.
Leading outcome
3-6 hours
77%
A 77.0% price implies roughly a 77-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.0 pts7D +6.0 pts
3-6 hours77.0%
6-12 hours22.0%
Bid
76¢
Ask
78¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 30, 2026: 15.0% – 81.0% · Opened at 23.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
Category
Tech, Coding, GitHub, outage, Recurring, microsoft
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$33.7K
Volume (24h)
$3.2K
Liquidity
$18.3K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
3-6 hours — 77.0%
Resolution source
https://www.githubstatus.com/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 3-6 hours, is priced at 77.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, 3-6 hours has traded between 15.0% and 81.0%. It opened at 23.0% and last traded at 76.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202647.5%
Oct 18, 202659.5%
Oct 19, 202661.0%
Oct 20, 202661.5%
Oct 22, 202673.5%
Oct 23, 202681.0%
Oct 24, 202676.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

3-6 hours is favored at 77.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
3-6 hours77¢77.0%-4.0 pts$16.7K49.5%
6-12 hours22¢22.0%+3.5 pts$8.6K25.6%
12+ hours1¢1.1%+0.9 pts$3.9K11.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$33.7K has been traded on this event in total, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.githubstatus.com/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,206 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No1,206$277
Belated-GlueNo378$87
Witty-BirchYes338$260
Fair-TanYes301$232
Rewarding-PantologistYes214$165
Required-TacticsYes200$154
Mean-Treasure-KingdomYes172$133
Bossy-Birdcage-PeriodYes172$132
Arid-CinemaYes150$116
Advanced-MailerYes144$111

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $1.1K at 83.8%BUY Yes — $125 at 82.9%BUY Yes — $114 at 83.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:42 PM ETNoSELL98.6%$107
Oct 24, 01:40 PM ETYesSELL20.0%$1
Oct 24, 01:05 PM ETYesSELL76.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$6
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETYesBUY76.6%$21
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETYesBUY1.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:34 PM ETYesSELL73.8%$37
Oct 24, 12:21 PM ETYesBUY20.0%$4
Oct 24, 12:21 PM ETYesBUY20.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:21 PM ETYesSELL11.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Longest GitHub critical incident in October??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3-6 hours at 77.0%. Next is 6-12 hours at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/longest-github-critical-incident-in-october?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Longest GitHub critical incident in October??

$33.7K in total volume, with $3.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Longest GitHub critical incident in October? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.githubstatus.com/.

What is the most likely outcome of Longest GitHub critical incident in October?, according to Polymarket traders?

3-6 hours, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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