As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3-6 hours at 77.0% in Longest GitHub critical incident in October? — $33.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 3-6 hours, is priced at 77.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 3-6 hours has traded between 15.0% and 81.0%. It opened at 23.0% and last traded at 76.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 76.5% |
3-6 hours is favored at 77.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-6 hours | 77¢ | 77.0% | -4.0 pts | $16.7K | 49.5% |
| 6-12 hours | 22¢ | 22.0% | +3.5 pts | $8.6K | 25.6% |
| 12+ hours | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.9 pts | $3.9K | 11.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$33.7K has been traded on this event in total, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.githubstatus.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,206 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,206 | $277 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 378 | $87 |
| Witty-Birch | Yes | 338 | $260 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 301 | $232 |
| Rewarding-Pantologist | Yes | 214 | $165 |
| Required-Tactics | Yes | 200 | $154 |
| Mean-Treasure-Kingdom | Yes | 172 | $133 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | Yes | 172 | $132 |
| Arid-Cinema | Yes | 150 | $116 |
| Advanced-Mailer | Yes | 144 | $111 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $107 |
| Oct 24, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 76.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 76.6% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 73.8% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 12:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3-6 hours at 77.0%. Next is 6-12 hours at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/longest-github-critical-incident-in-october?via=bro
$33.7K in total volume, with $3.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.githubstatus.com/.
3-6 hours, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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