As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 23°C at 75.0% in Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23? — $17.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 23°C, is priced at 75.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -24.8 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 23°C has traded between 75.0% and 99.8%. It opened at 97.2% and last traded at 75.0%.
23°C is favored at 75.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23°C | 75¢ | 75.0% | -24.8 pts | $3.3K | 19.6% |
| 19°C or below | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $129 | 0.8% |
| 20°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $120 | 0.7% |
| 21°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $396 | 2.3% |
| 22°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $829 | 4.9% |
| 24°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.9K | 34.8% |
| 25°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.5K | 20.8% |
| 26°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | 10.9% |
| 27°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $650 | 3.8% |
| 28°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $173 | 1.0% |
| 29°C or higher | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $61 | 0.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 50¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.0K has been traded on this event in total, $394 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 23, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,567 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 6,567 | $1.6K |
| Husky-Golf | Yes | 5,000 | $3.8K |
| Open-Rose-Tolerant | Yes | 348 | $261 |
| Plaintive-Bankbook | Yes | 333 | $250 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 281 | $211 |
| Granular-Forebear | Yes | 210 | $157 |
| Loose-Release | Yes | 170 | $127 |
| Evil-Watcher | No | 120 | $30 |
| Immaculate-Baseboard-Fries | Yes | 100 | $75 |
| Advanced-Metabolite | Yes | 91 | $68 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 07:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.9% | $303 |
| Oct 24, 05:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $74 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 04:02 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $34 |
| Oct 23, 12:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.7% | $45 |
| Oct 23, 09:15 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.7% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 08:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 23°C at 75.0%. Next is 19°C or below at 0.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-23-2026?via=bro
$17.0K in total volume, with $394 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 23, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
23°C, priced at 75.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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