Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 23°C at 75.0% in Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23? — $17.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $394.
Leading outcome
23°C
75%
A 75.0% price implies roughly a 75-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −24.8 pts
23°C75.0%
19°C or below0.1%
Bid
50¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
50¢
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Range since October 22, 2026: 75.0% – 99.8% · Opened at 97.2%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Daily Temperature, Hong Kong, Lowest temperature
Scheduled end
October 23, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$17.0K
Volume (24h)
$394
Liquidity
$77.5K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
23°C — 75.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 23°C, is priced at 75.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -24.8 pts.

Since October 22, 2026, 23°C has traded between 75.0% and 99.8%. It opened at 97.2% and last traded at 75.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

23°C is favored at 75.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
23°C75¢75.0%-24.8 pts$3.3K19.6%
19°C or below0¢0.1%—$1290.8%
20°C0¢0.1%—$1200.7%
21°C0¢0.1%—$3962.3%
22°C0¢0.1%—$8294.9%
24°C0¢0.1%—$5.9K34.8%
25°C0¢0.1%—$3.5K20.8%
26°C0¢0.1%—$1.9K10.9%
27°C0¢0.1%—$6503.8%
28°C0¢0.1%—$1731.0%
29°C or higher0¢0.1%—$610.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 50¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$17.0K has been traded on this event in total, $394 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 23, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,567 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No6,567$1.6K
Husky-GolfYes5,000$3.8K
Open-Rose-TolerantYes348$261
Plaintive-BankbookYes333$250
Straight-WrinkleYes281$211
Granular-ForebearYes210$157
Loose-ReleaseYes170$127
Evil-WatcherNo120$30
Immaculate-Baseboard-FriesYes100$75
Advanced-MetaboliteYes91$68

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $450 at 99.9%BUY Yes — $303 at 99.9%BUY No — $278 at 98.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:48 AM ETYesBUY99.0%$15
Oct 24, 07:11 AM ETYesBUY99.9%$303
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETNoSELL99.9%$74
Oct 24, 03:45 AM ETNoSELL99.9%$2
Oct 23, 08:01 PM ETYesBUY99.9%$30
Oct 23, 04:02 PM ETNoSELL99.9%$34
Oct 23, 12:54 PM ETYesSELL99.7%$45
Oct 23, 09:15 AM ETYesSELL99.7%$19
Oct 23, 08:34 AM ETNoSELL0.1%$0
Oct 23, 06:49 AM ETNoSELL99.9%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 23°C at 75.0%. Next is 19°C or below at 0.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-23-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23??

$17.0K in total volume, with $394 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 23, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 23?, according to Polymarket traders?

23°C, priced at 75.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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