As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 9°C at 46.5% in Lowest temperature in London on October 26? — $773 traded so far.
9°C is favored at 46.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9°C | 46¢ | 46.5% | — | $290 | 37.5% |
| 10°C | 40¢ | 40.5% | — | $178 | 23.0% |
| 8°C | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $30 | 3.9% |
| 7°C | 5¢ | 4.9% | — | $50 | 6.5% |
| 11°C | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $30 | 3.9% |
| 6°C | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $50 | 6.5% |
| 4°C or below | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $25 | 3.2% |
| 5°C | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $30 | 3.9% |
| 12°C | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $30 | 3.9% |
| 13°C | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $30 | 3.9% |
| 14°C or higher | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $30 | 3.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$773 has been traded on this event in total, $773 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at London City Airport (EGLC) on 26 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for London City Airport (EGLC) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=EGLC&format=raw&date=2026-10-27T03:00:00Z&hours=30
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 96 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rich-Horde-Corduroy | Yes | 96 | $45 |
| Shallow-Brewer | No | 64 | $34 |
| Black-Facility | No | 41 | $22 |
| Known-Use | No | 40 | $21 |
| Competent-Detail | Yes | 34 | $16 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 30 | $16 |
| Ancient-Organ | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| These-Latency-Perspective | No | 19 | $10 |
| 0x0b886a8a… | Yes | 16 | $8 |
| Young-Poppy | Yes | 16 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.3% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.5% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 04:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 46.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.2% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 9°C at 46.5%. Next is 10°C at 40.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26-2026?via=bro
$773 in total volume, with $773 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=EGLC&format=raw&date=2026-10-27T03:00:00Z&hours=30.
9°C, priced at 46.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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