Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 17°C at 33.0% in Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26? — $2.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.3K.
Leading outcome
17°C
33%
A 33.0% price implies roughly a 33-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
17°C33.0%
16°C30.5%
Bid
32¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
2¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Daily Temperature, Tokyo, Lowest temperature
Scheduled end
October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$2.3K
Volume (24h)
$2.3K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
17°C — 33.0%
Resolution source
https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=RJTT&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T18:00:00Z&hours=30

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

17°C is favored at 33.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
17°C33¢33.0%—$38116.3%
16°C30¢30.5%—$86337.0%
15°C15¢14.6%—$47020.2%
18°C14¢14.5%—$46720.0%
20°C5¢5.1%—$00.0%
19°C5¢4.7%—$261.1%
21°C4¢4.0%—$00.0%
23°C or higher2¢2.4%—$00.0%
14°C1¢1.3%—$00.0%
13°C or below1¢1.1%—$50.2%
22°C0¢0.1%—$1205.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.3K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on 26 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=RJTT&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T18:00:00Z&hours=30

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 144 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Boiling-MiscommunicationNo144$97
Rural-Fishmonger-SurvivorYes143$47
Zigzag-WallYes120$40
Sore-KnittingNo93$63
Black-FacilityYes39$13
Avaricious-IncenseNo25$17
Awesome-Checkbook-HoseYes20$7
Bland-DynamiteYes19$6
0xa5ef39c3…No18$12
Snarling-Dome-SectionNo17$12

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $235 at 66.8%BUY No — $63 at 78.6%BUY No — $53 at 74.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:14 PM ETNoSELL82.3%$14
Oct 24, 05:47 PM ETYesBUY32.9%$4
Oct 24, 05:46 PM ETNoBUY86.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:37 PM ETYesSELL31.0%$4
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL67.0%$1
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETYesBUY32.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETYesBUY32.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETYesBUY32.0%$3
Oct 24, 05:10 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$7
Oct 24, 05:10 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 17°C at 33.0%. Next is 16°C at 30.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-tokyo-on-october-26-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26??

$2.3K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=RJTT&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T18:00:00Z&hours=30.

What is the most likely outcome of Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 26?, according to Polymarket traders?

17°C, priced at 33.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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