As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.1% in Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? — $22.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since January 29, 2026, No has traded between 90.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.2% |
No is favored at 98.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.1% | -0.1 pts | $22.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.9% | +0.1 pts | $22.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 576 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 576 | $565 |
| Complete-Novel | Yes | 370 | $7 |
| Prickly-Offense | No | 300 | $294 |
| Which-Corral | Yes | 269 | $5 |
| Pointless-Exasperation | No | 159 | $156 |
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 147 | $3 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 107 | $2 |
| Double-Valley | Yes | 100 | $2 |
| Beneficial-Kielbasa | No | 100 | $98 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 83 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.4% | $947 |
| Oct 16, 03:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $1.3K |
| Oct 04, 03:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 01:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.6% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 12:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.5% | $0 |
| Sep 18, 04:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $0 |
| Sep 18, 04:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $7 |
| Sep 14, 04:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $57 |
| Sep 13, 05:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $196 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.1%. Next is Yes at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2027?via=bro
$22.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.1% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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