As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.5% in Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? — $2.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -33.8 pts.
Since December 17, 2025, No has traded between 15.0% and 97.0%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 88.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 52.6% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 77.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 82.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 88.5% |
No is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 89¢ | 88.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 11¢ | 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 250 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modern-Malice | No | 250 | $221 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 150 | $17 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 92 | $11 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 81 | $9 |
| Dearest-Agenda | No | 73 | $65 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 63 | $7 |
| EQMresolution | No | 57 | $51 |
| Required-Saffron | No | 55 | $49 |
| Unsightly-Pajamas | No | 50 | $44 |
| Tremendous-Fritter | Yes | 40 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 01:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.2% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.7% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 02:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.6% | $27 |
| Oct 14, 02:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.1% | $93 |
| Oct 12, 11:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.8% | $20 |
| Oct 12, 01:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.6% | $14 |
| Sep 22, 09:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 42.3% | $1 |
| Sep 17, 02:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.8% | $1 |
| Sep 07, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.3% | $2 |
| Sep 04, 06:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.5%. Next is Yes at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-tried-before-2027?via=bro
$2.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.