As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 5.5% in Macron out by...? — $2.22M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 5.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +1.9 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since July 29, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 2.1% and 21.0%. It opened at 21.0% and last traded at 5.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 5.8% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 4.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.4% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 5.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 5.5% | +0.4 pts | $95.0K | 4.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.22M has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 41,424 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue-Shape | No | 41,424 | $39.2K |
| Pleasant-Councilor | No | 8,998 | $8.5K |
| Neat-Stool | Yes | 8,672 | $473 |
| Sophisticated-Compliance-Bricklaying | Yes | 7,243 | $395 |
| Dense-Phenomenon | Yes | 5,950 | $324 |
| Likable-Temporariness | Yes | 5,885 | $321 |
| Humiliating-Supporter | Yes | 4,993 | $272 |
| Whirlwind-Protocol | Yes | 3,500 | $191 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 3,465 | $189 |
| Unusual-Skull | Yes | 2,018 | $110 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.7% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.6% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.3% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/macron-out-in-2025?via=bro
$2.22M in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 5.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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